New airstrikes in Yemen.

 I'm Nisha jwal welcome to the program we

start in Yemen which has been hit for a

second day by US air strikes us

officials say the new targets posed a

threat to shipping in the Red Sea which

has been disrupted by houi attacks in

recent weeks houi leaders vowed

retaliation following the first wave of

air

strikes sar's streets packed with

protesters they're incensed by a wave of

of us and British strikes on dozens of

houy Targets in Yemen launched in

retaliation for attacks on shipping in

the Red

Sea this is a message to Britain and

especially the United States of America

that they will pay a heavy price for

this aggression those crowds today

authorize the leader of the Revolution

and authorize the military leadership to

respond to this aggression at high

levels at Sea and on land

but the US and UK say the strikes which

hit military targets were acts of

self-defense houthi Rebels who are

backed by Iran have been targeting ships

in the Red Sea for weeks with the group

releasing this footage in November of

its Fighters appearing to seize a vessel

it claims the attacks are in response to

Israel's war in Gaza against Hamas whom

the US EU and other countries have

labeled a terrorist organization

UK prime minister Rishi sunak who is

currently visiting Ukraine said the

strikes were necessary proportionate and

targeted well over the last month we've

seen a significant increase in the

number of houthi attacks on commercial

shipping in the Red Sea that's putting

innocent lives at risk it's disrupting

the global economy uh and it's also uh

destabilizing the region and in that

time we've also seen seen the single

biggest attack on a Navy warship a

British Navy warship that we've seen in

decades now it's clear that that type of

behavior can't carry on the big question

now is what this could mean for the war

in Gaza and The Wider region with the

world bracing for a response from the

houthis and those who support

themob shinder is senior director at the

NGO the counter extremism project he

joins us from New York City Welcome to

DW what do you think this escalation

means for the Red Sea one of the busiest

shipping channels in the

world thank you so much for having me

well I mean this situation was

unavoidable over the last couple of

months really since octo November um the

houthis have really tried to inhibit

international shipping through the Red

Sea which is a big problem for Europe as

well as a big problem for Egypt whose uh

proceeds from the SE Canal have

plummeted by I think 25% so this

situation was not sustainable it pushes

up market prices several shipping

organizations are no longer using the SE

canal and going around Africa which adds

14 days to the uh time you Goods um for

for goods to reach Europe or uh goods

from Europe to reach Asia it adds a lot

of additional shipping insurance so it's

really a global economic problem behind

all of this of course is Iran Iran de Ed

now that since it's losing very clearly

its proxy Hamas in Gaza it wants to

build up the houthis as some kind of a

Proto hispa group in the south of Israel

and there had to be some reaction

unfortunately I don't think this is the

last time attacks on the on on the

ground in Yemen are going to be

necessary Iran the point of this this uh

International uh flotilla this operation

Prosperity Guardian the point was to

deter houes from attacking

shipping now that the hou is now that

the houes have been attacked in Yemen

they have said that they will uh respond

in kind they will retaliate so this

looks like this action uh from the US

and Britain looks like it's raising the

temperature rather than calming things

down well I mean let's be clear on the

order of things here so it was not the

International Community attacking the

houthis first it was the houthis

attacking the International Community

more we get that we get the sequence of

events my question my question really is

about what happens now that this has

happened

yeah look obviously everyone hopes that

this one military strike on the hthis on

the ground right 16 targets 160 um

targeted strikes in this attack um is

going to be enough to deter the hthis I

did not expect the houthis to make an

announcement today to say we back down

but let's see what they do do actually

then in operational terms are they going

to continue attack international

shipping I would say at least one more

round of strikes will be necessary to

really deter them to make it clear to

them that they are up against a

international force that is determined

to keep the waterways open except are

they really are they really up against a

determined International Force the US is

leading uh this operation the US has

elections this year the US has

demonstrated over the last few years

that it does not have the stomach for

protracted overseas

conflicts well I mean because the US has

elections this year um we need to keep

that Waterway open 10% of the world oil

transport goes to there Brent has

already gone up 4% last night so you

know we need to keep that Waterway open

in order to prevent a large scale

economic outc impacts of these things so

I don't see option you you've told me

about you've told me about the good

reasons that that that the US and

Britain think they have for launching

this attack I'm asking you about I'm

asking you uh given your expertise to

tell us about the the likely outcomes

you talk about the the the the houth is

um the houthis have been at War pretty

much in one way or another uh since uh

for the last couple of decades they have

a much bigger tolerance not only for

being shot at but for for also uh

sustaining casualties don't they have

more stomach for this conflict than the

international uh uh the the

international flotilla that has been put

together well let me put it to you to

another way so how else were we supposed

to be dealing with this should we accept

that the SE Canal is simply no longer

usable for international shipping of

course the houthis are going to resist

of course there are a militia Force who

pays absolutely no heat as hastas in

Gaza for Palestinians they don't care in

Yemen for yemenis I absolutely

understand that but I also feel that

there is an ability to deter not the

houthis but also Iran from continuing to

attack in this manner international

shipping by removing their capabilities

to do so it's one thing to fight the

houthis on the ground in Yemen it's

quite another thing to remove their long

strike capabilities which is rocket

launch sites and um um and drone launch

sites and to send a very clear message

to Iran that if they want to close the

SE Canal that this is a no longer

Regional but a global problem I don't

see another option of what could be done

we cannot accept the SE Canal for being

closed good talking to you thank you for

joining us H yob Schindler from the

counter extremism project V Ali Khan

who's a Yemen analyst and joins us from

New York welcome Vina uh the basics I

want to start with first of all who are

these guys the the the houes who are

they and what are they fighting against

or for

of course so the houthis control most of

the population of Yemen including the

capital sa and some of the western and

Northern areas close to Saudi Arabia and

the international recognized government

controls the rest of the country um the

houthis initially launched an Insurgency

in the northern country in 2004 and came

into sonar in

2014 um ostensively they they are a zi

sh group and this is very different from

the ISM you find in Iran um although we

hear a lot about Iran's relationship

with the HTH the group remains yeny and

the reasons that turn them into an armed

group are very local um for the past six

years they've been fighting against the

internationally recognized government

backed by Saudi Arabia and the United

Arab Emirates um and recently in

response to events in Gaza they've kind

of shifted the needle um to focus their

attacks on The Wider what they see as

the US aggression okay thank you for

that and let's look at the the targets

of of these British and and American

missile strikes what did they hit and

and apparently they killed five

people yeah so um the actual missile

attacks focused on H in hthi areas of

hia ha and sa um and this was after the

UK and the US reinforced Naval

deployment back in January into the Red

Sea um you know I think generally if the

aim of these strikes were to force the

houthis to hold their attacks on the Red

Sea um it will not work the incident

allows the houthis to frame themselves

as a pro Palestine movement um the

houthis themselves say that the strikes

will not achieve any results they have

vowed to respond this could take the

shape of increasing attacks on the US

and British vessels in the Red Sea or

even attacking us Assets in the Gulf so

this could take the shape of military

bases um ironically these strikes in my

opinion actually benefit the huies in

the long term it helps to prove their

narrative that the real enemy is the US

um the huies have long built their

legitimacy on hostility towards the US

and Israel thus if anything the strikes

only increases their popularity and

gives the group more leverage um also

the huist have likely been preparing for

this attack themselves um the UK and the

US have been releasing warnings for the

past month and it's not as if the group

actually has normal military

infrastructure they very much rely on

missile launch races that are

transportable so the actual damage

caused by these strikes is

minimal and so far so predictable um the

the US and Britain fire Rockets hit

people kill people uh the The houthis

Vow Revenge this is what we would expect

what you've been saying there is you

actually believe that they will follow

through on this and this is what I've

been hearing uh pretty much all day that

they don't as an enemy the houthis do

not act in what you might call a

rational way because so much of what is

done to them as you say plays into their

uh plays into their narrative and also

they've been doing this for the best

part of 20

years I mean you know in the past since

Israel launched its war on ever since

the Gaza events kind of escalated the

houthis have successfully linked the Red

Sea crisis to Gaza you know they are

deterring vessels on the way to Israel

demanding that Israel ends its assault

on Gaza which will unlikely in the

longterm deter the Israelis um from

halting their tag um so with these

attacks from the US and UK and the

minimal damage it's caused it's a

win-win situation for theth right the US

won't be able to the houth from

escalating or resuming their taxs on the

Red Sea and at the same time the houthis

can gain leverage on you know their

propaganda machine so either way the

situation isn't a loss of them right and

I wonder if part of the the houy

calculus is that the US is likely to

have little stomach uh for a foreign

Adventure in an election

year I mean I think ever since the Red

Sea escalation started the huist have

calculated that the US does not want a

war right it does not want a regional

escalation not just because of the US

elections also because you know even in

2015 when the Saudis entered Yemen this

did not lead to the radication of the

houthis um actually quite opposite the

houthis have become far stronger um also

we are this whole escalation is

happening at the same time where the

hthis were me to be reaching a peace

agreement with the Saudis whereby they

would actually have gotten a lot of

their demands fulfilled um so either way

either way the houis are feeling very

confident at the moment to raise the

stakes and the US on the other hand um

whatever strategy it carries out at the

moment it's a lose lose situation right

even if even if they don't do anything

to deter the houthis the houthis will

carry on at the same time if they

escalate attacks in Yemen they risk this

situation um you know running into a

regional configeration and and and so a

brief word then about the nature of that

that escalation what do you think would

bring the houthi main backer Iran

directly into this

conflict I mean I think you know without

a doubt throughout the years Iran's

relationship with the houthis have

become stronger you know Iran has helped

with weapons te technology for anti-tank

guided mesar and intelligence I think

with the recent attacks although it's

clear Iran does play a role it's

difficult to discern exactly what that

role is right because the huthis have

itself increased their own capabilities

independently over Iran throughout these

years as well um and this all plays part

of of the Iranian strategy of kind of

plausible deniability whereby they can

use the houthis to escalate while

maintaining the public stance that they

have nothing to do with attacks so you

know you can say right now that Iran is

involved while at the same time denying

it gotcha thank you so much for taking

us through that so clearly Yemen analyst

vinaa

alikar thank you for having

me